Posts Tagged ‘recession’

According to the Commerce Department, the nation’s gross domestic product contracted at a 5.5% annual rate in the first quarter of this year, as against 6.3% in the fourth quarter of last year. Economists believe that the economy is contracting at about 2% this quarter. “The economic data we’ve seen so far for the second quarter suggest the preliminary number for the second quarter will show a modest decline, maybe half the rate we saw in the first quarter,” said Gary Thayer, senior economist with Wells Fargo Advisors.

Despite the good news, economists are worried about unemployment not showing any signs of sustained reduction. This week, the Labor Department said jobless claims for last week jumped unexpectedly by 15,000 to a seasonally-adjusted total of 627,000. Continued claims, which denote the number of workers still on jobless rolls after an initial week of claims, rose 29,000 to 6.738 million in the week ended June 13, the latest period for which the data was published. “We still firmly believe that the underlying trends in claims is downwards, but it is slow and uneven,” says Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics.

The Commerce Department says personal income in May rose 1.4%, the biggest gain so far in the year. The rise in income didn’t translate fully into spending. Consumer spending rose only 0.3% in May, a rise for the first time in the last 3 months while savings rate jumped to 6.9%, the highest since December 1993. “Consumers are starting to return to malls to spend a little more as they think we’re through the worst,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

Analysts believe a sustained recovery in consumer spending is likely only after unemployment eases. “The recession is ending. Still, purchases are likely to be modest until the job losses ease and companies start hiring,” said Rupkey. Increasing job losses led to 0.1% drop in salaries in May. Retailers believe consumer spending will not rise to any significant extent in the near-term. David Dillon, Chief Executive Officer of Kroger Company, a grocery chain, said: “Shoppers remain cautious in this economy, and we do not anticipate that changing anytime soon.”

Experts believe that the current level of housing inventory has to come down for the industry to get into a phase of sustained recovery. Short sale transactions offer a win-win-win situation to buyers, sellers, and lenders, and help clear the housing inventory available for sale. While short sales have risen in the last year or so, experts believe that banks are still not fully prepared to approve the transactions in a timely manner. Rick Shargo, vice president of marketing at RealtyTrac, said: “Interminable delays of six weeks to three months are not uncommon, or banks rejecting a 20% discount at short-sale only to ultimately take the property back and market it at 40 or 50% lower.”

Banks have to report their mortgage assets on a mark-to-market basis, and any sale at a price lower than the value in their books will mean a reduction in their reported profits. Bankers also complain that some buyers take advantage of the current situation, and demand a price which is way below the market price. Walter Molony, spokesman for the National Association of Realtors, said: “Short sales have taken far too long. The faster you clear off this excess inventory the faster you can stabilize home prices.”